General, Política actual — December 25, 2007 at 11:41 am

Expertos liberales en economía USA piden la intervención del Estado

by

(Para que Alan Greenspan pida la intervención estatal… algo muy grave debe estar ocurriendo).
Aumentan los llamamientos en EE.UU. para una acción estatal contra la crisis

Washington, 21 dic (AFP).- El Gobierno de Estados Unidos deberá meterse
la mano en el bolsillo si quiere contener la crisis inmobiliaria y
evitar una recesión: es el mensaje que exaltos funcionarios económicos,
aún hoy muy escuchados, trasmitieron en los últimos días.

El expresidente de la Reserva Federal (Fed) Alan Greenspan desató una
polémica al afirmar el domingo que el Gobierno debería ayudar dando
dinero a los propietarios asfixiados por sus préstamos inmobiliarios a
tasa variable.

“Dinero del Gobierno, sí”, afirmó Greenspan en una entrevista por
televisión. “El dinero está disponible y deberíamos utilizarlo en mayor
cantidad, si es necesario, para resolver los problemas”, añadió.

El miércoles fue Lawrence Summers, secretario del Tesoro del entonces
presidente Bill Clinton, quien reavivó el debate al sugerir que el
Gobierno ataque el problema con un vasto plan en el que se combinarían
reducciones de impuestos, prórrogas del seguro por desempleo y aumento
de los bonos de ayuda en alimentos.

“Es razonable pensar que esta ayuda oscilaría entre 50.000 y 70.000
millones de dólares, entre 0,5% y 1,0% del Producto Interior Bruto”,
afirmó en un discurso en Washington.

Estos comentarios fueron más significativos aún por el hecho de que
Greenspan y Summers no son conocidos como favorables a la intervención
estatal.

Si lo proponen hoy, es porque creen que la situación económica es grave.

“La probabilidad de una recesión ha aumentado a alrededor del 50%”,
afirmó Greenspan, por lo que estamos empezando a ver, “no ya la
estanflación” (inflación elevada y crecimiento desacelerado) “sino sus
primeros síntomas”.

Summers consideró que “existe el peligro de una recesión seria, que
llevaría al peor desempeño económico desde el fin de los años 70 y
comienzo de los 80”.

Todo el problema proviene de la crisis del sector inmobiliario, que no
cesa de agravarse como una bola de nieve, provocando un crisis del
crédito que estrangula a los mercados.

Las ventas de viviendas caen y, con el alza de las tasas de interés,
cientos de miles de familias pobres que habían aprovechado los famosos
préstamos a riesgo ‘subprime’ para acceder a la propiedad se ven
amenazados con el embargo de sus viviendas.

En un contexto de alza de los precios de la gasolina y de la
alimentación, el consumo no podría más que bajar, lo que representaría
una catástrofe para la economía, puesto que representa los dos tercios
del crecimiento.

“Una recesión moderada es probable a partir de ahora” estiman los
analistas de Morgan Stanley en su informe anual de coyuntura, subrayando
que “los consumidores deberán enfrentar una verdadera tempestad”.

Al percibir que la situación se agrava, los dirigentes estadounidenses
han venido acelerando su accionar recientemente.

A comienzos de diciembre, el presidente de Estados Unidos, George W.
Bush, reveló un plan en el que se prevé la congelación de ciertos
préstamos ‘subprime’ durante cinco años. La semana pasada, el Senado
votó un texto por el que se facilita el acceso a los préstamos
garantizados por el gobierno.

Paralelamente, el banco central se puso en actividad, dando a conocer el
martes reglas para resolver el problema de las prácticas de préstamos
dudosos, pero muchos inversores se muestran recelosos ante estas
operaciones de salvamento estatal.

En principio, porque no es seguro que funcione. “Es imposible ayudar a
todo el mundo”, hace notar Brian Wesbury, de First Trust Portfolio.

Además, “las propuestas del gobierno Bush violan numerosos principios de
la economía de mercado”, afirma el analista.

“La preferencia debería ser siempre en favor del libre funcionamiento de
los mercados”, añadió, resumiendo en esas palabras la opinión de Wall

biblioteca rafapal

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